The downside was that only Philip Rivers had more negative plays than Mayfield on these passes, as the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner ended the season with nine turnover-worthy plays and seven interceptions. You can find the link to the 2017-18 Deep Ball Project here. My jobs not to have the most air yards. Brees was mocking anybody who would hold some silly advanced stat in his face as a sign hes not a good quarterback. After Henderson, the team drafted Kenny Stills, who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. We would say that 74.7 percent of said quarterback's passes would have had clean pockets. You have to go a long way back to get a large enough sample size for Teddy Bridgewater, to the point those games likely mean nothing anymore, but the alternative was including Kyle Allen, which just doesnt seem like fair use of anybodys brainpower. Tyrod Taylor, like Smith, wasn't spectacular in accuracy but took outrageously good care of the football despite playing with arguably the worst receiving corps in the league, poor pass protection, and the second-highest rate of tight windows in the league. but Brissett's ranking is very difficult to accept, especially considering: According to ESPN, he completed 10 of 35 attempts over 20 yards in 2017. I only skimmed a few results from a site search, but all the same. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. The main question here is whether the pass was really off target or adjusted away from coverage. In his defense, it wasnt all Goff, as the Rams had one of the worst offensive lines in football, and Goff often just didnt have the time to let deep plays develop. And, of course, that figure is also aided by Breess own vast knowledge of the Saints offensive system. 2 is Dak Prescott. Brown. While Brees is still effective throwing downfield - 46.3 completion rate (2nd) and 16.1 YPA (3rd) on attempts longer than 20 yards - he only went deep on . 18.8 yards/attemp. What saved his grade was his solid accuracy on throws of 40-plus yards, under pressure, and into tight windows. Did he peak in October or so and then decline? This year, only three of Breess 68 attempts have been deeper than 20 yards, a rate of 4.4 percent. Drew Brees Deep Ball Accuracy Career | StatMuse INT. Only six quarterbacks went the entire season without throwing a single inaccurate completion: Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Nick Foles, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Learning How to Successfully Predict the Top NFL Prospects. Darnold is now entering his third season of football with as many questions surrounding his prospects as there were when he was drafted. Completion percentage is a highly valued stat in football, and while that's included in the Deep Ball Project, a greater emphasis is played on accuracy percentage. The Chicago Bears, New Orleanss Week 8 opponent, have the NFLs sixth-ranked defense by EPA (and are fourth-best against the pass), so theyll surely be a tough opponent for Brees and the Saints short-passing scheme. Join our linker program. I love detailed breakdowns like this (boy, did I find this way late - guess this is for anyone else who also reads this late). Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. If thats not enough, there are another three years of gifs/studies to consider. (Its a funny joke to everybody not routinely giving up first downs to Michael Thomas on slant routes.) The Saints QB may be the greatest statistical passer of all time, but at this point in his career, his deep passes leave something (OK, a lot) to be desired. Career Stats: Brees: 249 Games, 66.9% completion, 70,445 yards, 488TDs, 228 Ints, QB Rating 96.7. I haven't actually thought much about it, but it makes sense on the surface so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt there. Heres a pass from 2010 where Brees tosses the ball 57 yards to his all-time favorite deep threat, Devery Henderson: The Saints have long thrived on the underneath passing game, but thats always been helped by the fact that New Orleans consistently pairs Brees with a speedster who can beat defenses over the top. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. The big shock comes from the different situations faced by Texans quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Tom Savage. Drew Brees Career Stats | NFL.com Fandom; Futhead; We are gathered here today to remember Drew Breess arm. Drew Brees - College Football at Sports-Reference.com Todd McShay breaks down the Eagles' draft that netted them Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith among others. Birth Year: 1979. but caught four 50-yard touchdowns from Brees. As Brees is close to catching Manning in some records thought I would put a comparison together between the two Qbs. 3rd in 2000, Draft: 2nd round, 32nd overall of the 2001 NFL draft by the San Diego Chargers, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 6:49AM. Jeff Legwold explains why the Broncos picked up Jerry Jeudy's rookie option. Overview Upgrades Abilities Compare . Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? Interpreted as: deep ball completion percent with a minimum of 1500 passing attempts leaders. Thanks to PFF Premium Stats 2.0 which is available with a PFF ELITE subscription we can see how quarterbacks perform in this critical area each season, but lets go a step deeper and rank those quarterbacks by PFF grade on deep passes, rather than by any production-based deep passing metric that is heavily influenced by the receiver at the catch point and the coverage the ball was thrown into. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. 11:36 AM, Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints is having one of the most interesting quarterback seasons in recent memory. Seth Galina of Pro Football Focus highlighted this play, calling it the best seam-thrower of all time passing up one of the most open seam throws of his life.. Get the latest career stats for Drew Brees of the on CBS Sports CBSSports.com 247Sports . Which Rough NFL Starts Are Salvageable, and Which Are Season-Enders? He played only two seasons with the Saints, but caught four 50-yard touchdowns from Brees. He is the greatest statistical quarterback in NFL history. Despite 662 dropbacks, Goff took a shot deep just 56 times (8.9%) and scored only one touchdown on those plays, despite having plenty to work with in terms of receiving talent. So he is not only as productive as Brisset but additionally gets you another 650 yards at a great yards per attemp rate. Quickly compare stats, fantasy rankings and points to find out which player is a better option in your fantasy football league. Carson Wentz had the highest percentage of open-window passes to throw to (51.8 percent), yet he was third-to-last in accuracy to those areas (48.8 percent). Matthew Stafford has the totals but lacks in accuracy. The average accuracy rate for this year's Deep Ball Project was 48.1 percent, while the average efficiency score was 0.99. Do you have a blog? Drew Brees had a passer rating of 97.1 with 8,695 yards, 54 touchdowns and 27 interceptions in 29 games against the Falcons in his career. Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast. Without any further digressions, here is how the leagues quarterbacks graded on deep passes, passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, in 2019. Plays where the receiver stops or runs the wrong route. One of the areas the Cowboys improved passing attack manifested itself last season was in Dak Prescotts deep passing performance. Drew Brees Stats, News, Bio | ESPN Drew Brees Stats | ESPN Even Mason Rudolph, who only started eight games, had six more deep shots than Garoppolo did all year. Because some of the accuracy percentages achieved by the subjective grading system are radically different from the percentages based on straightforward completions/attempts. Who has the most career 150 rushing yard games? The six interceptions dragged his efficiency down, but he was the second-most accurate overall downfield passer. Is there some other bias we can't possibly see with a couple of potentially cherry picked examples? It would be great if the author would reveal which specific throws by quarterbacks were graded as accurate incompletions, or inaccurate completions. In that August story about Breess offseason program, ESPN looked back at the QBs career attempts to targets deeper than 35 yards downfield. He has not been a great downfield passer for a while, lacking the precision he has shown in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Well, head coach Bill O'Brien went away from the play-action, read-option offense he provided to Watson and gave Savage an offense that forced him to throw tight-window passes at the rate of Aaron Rodgers. He had just 48 deep attempts last season, which was one of the lower deep shot rates (9.4%) in the league. Drew Brees Playoff Stats | StatMuse energy, but Fitzpatrick was actually uncharacteristically conservative last year. NFL All-Time QB Records: Season and Career Leaders - Pro Football Network Tom Brady has never been the leagues best deep passer, but like everything else in New England, his deep passing suffered from the lack of quality receivers in 2019. Jones has plenty to work on this offseason, but deep passing should absolutely be part of the equation. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. Though he faced more pressure downfield, Foles was still able to get friendly reads because of the variety of play-calling that Doug Pederson provided. Starter is currently injured and may not play. Obviously different definitions of accurate could result in differing accurate-pass totals (John's total-sample Acc% was 4.9% more), but looking at QBs who didn't play in the playoffs (I wasn't sure if those were included here), this study had over 100 less attempts than Cian's. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. . In this clip from the Saints first game of the year, Brees has two open receivers downfield. The quality of Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, and Gerald Everett meant that he was constantly throwing to open receivers as well. That's where the Deep Ball Project comes in, and it makes an effort to differentiate accuracy from completions. When was Drew Brees drafted? Thats quite a large sample size. Tom Brady had 1889 adjusted yards. Fantasy Football. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints 48.4% completion percentage, 13.0 yards per attempt, 107.2 Passer Rating Few players throw a better deep ball than Drew Brees when he's at his best, but as he ages, his effectiveness and frequency of deep passing has declined. However, Rivers did also suffer from the second-most drops in the league, and accounting for those drops jumps his completion rate up five places on its own. Oops. Brees resents the implication that this development will prevent the Saints from contending. However, his adjusted completion rate was one of the worst figures in all of football, and he had the highest rate of uncatchable, inaccurate passes on those targets. Kyler a Trade Chip? Drew Brees played 287 games over his career. He was also fourth on play-action, only behind Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Eli Manning. Really enjoyed these numbers and the commentary. Interpreted as: Drew Brees deep ball passing accuracy career. The reason he ranked so high was his success on those 40-plus-yard plays, as well as the fact that he took really good care of the ball, limiting interceptions and dangerous throws. Accuracy on off-balance throws doesn't mean too much considering the small sample size, but DeShone Kizer and Cam Newton (who had a great year passing the deep ball despite his health) ranked at the top. And after a long stretch of finishing last or second to last in critical defensive stats, New Orleanss defense is actually capable of winning the team games now. also new for 2017-18? * Selected to Pro Bowl, + First-Team AP All-Pro, Bold indicates league leader, Transaction, fine, and suspension data since 2002. Drew Brees Career Stats Against Atlanta | StatMuse than any other quarterback last year, and they came at the cost of just one turnover-worthy play. Gender: Male. (So does Taysom Hill.) Instead of throwing to one of them, though, he pump-fakes twice and settles on a dump-off pass for a loss of 2 yards. That results in the quarterback's efficiency score. Then there's the fact that the very *foundation* of this analysis is made of potentially dubious subjective judgement calls . Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. My job is to execute the offense, Brees said after a surprising Monday night loss to the Raiders. Jeff Legwold explains why the Broncos picked up Jerry Jeudy's rookie option. While Andy Dalton was a pedestrian deep passer, the Bengals will be hoping that Joe Burrow is entirely different. If that doesnt put into context how we evaluate quarterbacks at draft time, nothing will. Join our linker program. Elos spread: Baltimore -3. This came with the same supporting cast, so what happened? Watson has the arm to make special deep passes, and while he made a lot of big plays, only three passers threw more interceptions on deep shots than the five Watson managed over the regular season. There was also a large amount of read-option. Sometimes the only way to have chance at a completion, due to the coverage, is to force the receiver to adjust to the ball. Accuracy percentage takes a look at whether the pass was or wasn't accurate, regardless whether it was caught. Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREEYour All-Access Ticket to the Pro Football Reference Database. If we scale it by 39/22 that is 1257 yards. The crazy thing is that Julio Jones had 12 of those 18 accurate incompletions. That is as goosd as the top yards/attemp QB for the entire season (Drew Brees). Are you equally skeptical of FOs other semi-subjective charting on broken tackles, drops, and pressures? Well, the further the accurate pass is thrown, the more points will be handed out. Of course a QB could also be overly-aggressive or a poor decision-maker. . Your bad arguments and bad attitude undermine a potentially valid point. Brees is statistically one of the worst deep-ball throwers in the league and the Buccaneers need to take advantage According ESPN Stat & Info , Brees is throwing short passes at a historically . Breess throwing coach, Tom House, bragged to ESPN that this summer, Brees had built up his arm to the point where he was throwing the ball 57, 58 yards without even trying. Brees used to throw the ball that deep in games. Drew Brees had 80,358 passing yards over his career. Coming in at No. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. Looking Back at Drew Brees's Charger Days | LA Chargers Now Hell Face LeBron and the Lakers. Breess dominance isnt just defined by his place on all-time leaderboards, though, but rather by how many spots he occupies: He has four of the top six passing yardage seasons of all time and five of the top six completion percentage seasons. But Smith was mediocre in 2014 and thats more often been the case for the QBs who rank highly on both lists above. Drew Brees Career Stats | NFL.com Players Injuries Transactions Health & Safety NFL+ X NFL+ Draft Room Rhett Lewis is joined by Marc Ross, David Shaw and Cynthia Frelund to predict picks. Jimmy Garoppolo had the highest percentage of clean pockets. Everybody wants explosive plays in the NFL. Both teams have strong playoff odds each sits in excess of 94 percent but the contest could have huge implications on not just the AFC North derby but also the all-important race for the AFCs top overall seed. Some of it comes down to Kamaras unique talent as a receiver; no other running back is even close to being as valuable a pass catcher, according to Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement metric. One Defining Question for Each Second-Round NBA Playoff Series. Brees has proven throughout his career, and in the 2011 regular season, that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when it comes . Tate and J. Kyle Mann discuss Currys incredible 50-point performance against the Kings and introduce a new segment, Matt and Lucas discuss the looming WGA strike, National recruiting analyst Cooper Petagna breaks down the process for determining who the most impactful prospects will be, David and Kaz talk Roman Reigns, Cody Rhodes, CM Punk, and more, Sheil and Ben break down the NFL draft and look ahead to where Kyler Murray will be playing in 2024, The guys also discuss Mondays matchups between the 76ers and Celtics and the Suns and Nuggets, By submitting your email, you agree to our. These subjective to objective metrics never seem very accurate to me. This year, that figure is down even further, sitting at just 4.9 yardsa yard and a half per throw lower than his league-worst number from last year. Drew Brees had 571 touchdowns over his career. 1 rolling rating in our QB Elo metric, which I suspect is overstating things a bit but it does speak to his expectation-defying performance so far this season. The "points" system here seems completely arbitrary. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. Plays where the receiver catches the ball but can't control the ball as he hits the ground. according to Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, all-important race for the AFCs top overall seed. After all the passes are tallied up, the final number of points is divided by the amount of downfield passes. Despite having the lowest average depth of target in the NFL last year, Brees thrived. His dominance came in short bursts and prolonged excellence: He holds the record for most touchdown passes in a game and in a career. He forced the second-most inaccurate completions with 12, and Marvin Jones caught seven of those passes. 4th in 1999, Stafford has 1614 adjusted yards in 86 attempts. Brissett was known for his poor deep passing in college. The league has known that for as far back as anybody can remember, and in todays game, the most reliable way of producing them is by throwing the ball deep. His adjusted yards for 22 completions is (674 + 4*20 - 1*45) = 709 yards. On Baltimores side, it has recovered from a 14-point loss to Kansas City in Week 3 to win three straight, with QB Lamar Jackson playing more like himself in the recent win over Philadelphia though the Eagles late comeback against what is (on paper) one of the NFLs top defenses was concerning. more attempts in Cian's charting. He has just one completion. With CeeDee Lamb added to the mix this year, he could appear even higher on this list come next season. Drew Brees Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro But so far this season, Brees has generally ignored Sanders, who has just four catches for 37 yards. ESPN Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved. Nobody throws a prettier deep pass than Russell Wilson, and it turns out thats not only backed up by PFF grade but also by his production. We present them here for purely educational purposes. Tom Brady saw the second-highest rate of open-window passes. 571. Simply put, its difficult to build an effective offense around short throws that disproportionately target players coming out of the backfield. Theres not much to like about Haskins numbers from his rookie season except the mitigating circumstances that he was really without many viable passing targets, with only really rookie Terry McLaurin showing up reliably. Only Tyrod Taylor lost completions to receiver error more often than Brissett did. In short, he was a lot of fun to watch and chart, as his accuracy across the boards was phenomenal. Murrays deep pass was one of his strengths in college, and he showed that it should still be a notable strength in the NFL, especially if his receivers can win more consistently on the outside and give him more reliable places to go with the football. For the Cincinnati Bengals, we ranked Andy Dalton rather than embarking on the pointless exercise of comparing Joe Burrows college stats to NFL equivalents (though if you wanted to see Burrows deep passing numbers, youd find them in PFFs 2020 NFL Draft Guide). His accuracy into open windows was horrible and he took poor care of the ball downfield, getting lucky on passes that should have been picked off. (Even for Smith in 2014, 5.4 percent of his passes traveled at least 20 yards. The real question, however, will be if Brees can keep it up over the rest of the season. Stephen A. Smith details why Lamar Jackson is better positioned for a Super Bowl run than Aaron Rodgers. This is not to say that Breess career is over, or that the Saints are doomed in 2020. Sixteen quarterbacks finished above the average for accuracy percentage, and the same number finished above the average for efficiency score. The Saints likely need it if they are to win that elusive second championship. Are these numbers consistent from year to year? Ryan Tannehills arrival last season changed the teams fortunes and transformed the Titans offense. Do they have predictive value? His accuracy was sensational both under pressure and on passes into tight windows, and because he had a high number of accurate incompletions (tied with Cam Newton for the most in 19) with minimal interceptions and dropped picks, he had the highest efficiency score of any quarterback in 2017. In reply to I do not want to be trollish or dismissive by JohnxMorgan. Ranking all 32 NFL quarterbacks by deep passing performance: Dak - PFF Heading into the 2019 season, we thought Carson Wentz might have the best receiving corps in the league to throw to. (So does Taysom Hill.). Tyrod Taylor was the only quarterback to be accurate on all of his passes to open windows. Drew Brees (13) Henderson, who was already in New Orleans when Brees arrived, was the first. NFL Passing (13). Kyler Murray is tied with Brees at 51 percent. Forces Passes Ideal. Carson Palmer's swan-song year was a shadow of his phenomenal 2015 season, but he faced the highest rate of pressure on downfield throws. Lock completed only three of those 11 pass attempts for 96 yards and a score, but he also had one picked off. There has been a lot of numerical analysis of many parts of football and especially of quarterbacking, but there has generally been very little dedicated to analyzing downfield passes. Drew Brees Career Stats | StatMuse Drew Brees Authentic voice 6'0", 209 lbs Saints QB PCT 67.7 YDS 80,358 TD 571 RATE 98.7 Career Overview Stats Game Log Splits Bio Explore Drew Brees rookie season stats When was Drew Brees drafted? 1: 55.6: 15: 27: 221: 8.2: Something went wrong. ", http://presnapreads.com/2018/03/25/quarterback-tiers-and-rankings-based-exclusively-on-the-2017-season/. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. Jared Goff's friendly percentages aren't a surprise, as Sean McVay was historically sensational as a rookie head coach. YDS. Henderson ran track at LSU and recorded a 4.36-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. Derek Carr's quality of play takes a massive drop when he is not given clean pockets. It has been no secret that Alex Smith's career, for the most part, has been defined by his safe style of playing quarterback. In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by hoegher. For this year's edition, Football Outsiders has been kind enough to give me a platform to further spread the word of mouth. @Neil_Paine, NFL (976 posts) Three-Point Field Goal Percentage. Drew Brees NFL Stats & News - rotowire.com Only three quarterbacks lost more completions and only three quarterbacks lost more yards. Winston was incredibly productive, but it always came at a cost, one that NFL teams have apparently decided is too much to live with for a while. Some school's results have been altered by retroactive NCAA penalties. How much does Drew Lock weigh? 1. NFL Elo Ratings (163) Alex Smith's efficiency score was sixth. [Editors note:Subscribe to PFF ELITE todayto gain access to PFFsPremium Statsand newPlayer Grades experiencein addition to the2020 NFL Draft Guide,2020 Fantasy Rookie Scouting Report,PFF Greenline, all of PFFs premium article content and more.]. But watching him play, he doesnt seem convinced that it worked. The Broncos on Monday picked up wide receiver Jerry Jeudy's fifth-year rookie option. This takes a look at each quarterback's rate of scenarios out of the total amount of downfield passes. What, Exactly, Is the Detroit Lions Plan? Yes, that is Jacoby Brissett on the top. Does this tell us anything the respective DVOA splits don't already? at 2. Drew Brees of New Orleans Saints sets NFL mark for 400-yard - ESPN For example, let's say a quarterback threw 75 passes downfield, and on 56 of those passes he had a clean pocket. Ultimately its just another part of Trubiskys game that has likely cost him the starting job in favor of Nick Foles, whose numbers last season may have been even worse than Trubiskys. Suddenly, Smith was throwing the ball downfield more consistently. And no QB in the entire sample had a season in which he threw a smaller share of passes 20 or more yards downfield than Breess 3.3 percent rate so far in 2020. Drew Brees vs. Jameis Winston Stats | FantasyPros In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by eggwasp. The Writers Strike Deadline Is Here. Stroud, Mike Tanier's Final Three-Round Mock Draft, Things to Do While Waiting for Aaron Rodgers. From Joe Burrow to Chase Young, which players from the class of 2020 had their options picked up or declined? Obviously, he would need to improve from here if he is to succeed in Denver. This is consistent with research that shows passes to running backs as being less valuable than those directed to other positions. Steals Per Game. Explore Who had the most wins as an underdog last season? Ryan Fitzpatrick might be the only quarterback in the league who can rival Jameis Winston for Y.O.L.O. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. Mahomes had the second-best passer rating on deep targets but did enjoy a little luck in that only two of his five turnover-worthy plays actually ended up picked off. . His completion rate and other numbers werent terrible on those plays; the Raiders just need to find a way to coax him into attempting more of them and must surely be hoping that Henry Ruggs III will be the player to help that. Making it under pressure or in a tight window adds one point to make it seven. In 2018, he went 1-for-8. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Finally, let's look at the percentage of situations each quarterback was in. On 84 attempts. The encouraging sign for Panthers fans is that after a couple of games, Bridgewater did start to open up and take more shots, but even with those, only Garoppolo threw it deep less often. Looking at Savage vs Watson and Foles vs Wentz, it would appear the price of mobility is increasing rates of throwing on the move, but with the bump of less pressure and more open windows. His overall accuracy wasn't spectacular, but it was still good. Note: Kizer taking care of the ball better than expected on deep passes is particularly notable since he very obviously had no ability to take care of the ball in the red zone, when the field got shorter. *Numbers taken from the 2016-19 NFL seasons. Not to mention that "inaccurate completions" and "accurate incompletions" are not straightforward like "dropped interceptions." All rights reserved. The smallest sample size, but very close in attempts (31 for Cian, 28 for John), yet Cian had 6 less accurate attempts. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. No passer could match the 13 touchdowns Mahomes managed on deep targets they were two more than the next closest quarterback. You'd think those would more closely line up if every play was looked at. If you have a receiver that wins the jump-ball regularly, then the QB SHOULD throw jump balls to him, he's an idiot if he doesn't. I know this from experience because of my research on downfield throws. *Ranking among Week 8 starters, according to our QB Elo ratings. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. (This is where the "elite" jokes come in.). That is, did their attempts contain all the discrepancies between the 2 methodologies (& thus had hugely different rankings). Excluding Breess 2020, the average QBR for passers with both an average air yards per attempt below 7.00 and fewer than 8 percent of passes traveling at least 20 air yards was 51.1, which is well below the overall league average of 60.4 since 2006.
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